Markets/Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$648K

Liquidity$639K

ClosesApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 221% — 121pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3)

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL

100%

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - P

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wall

75%

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Gam

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Win

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-46.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $648K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2059969