ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
Share on X

Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5

Closed March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$582K

Liquidity

$920

Bid / Ask

23% / 34%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

7%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Ducks vs. Flames

Full event →

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-34.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

28%

Mar 27, 2026

Biggest move: -24.0pp

52% → 28%

Mar 27, 2026

Current

18% YES (-10.0pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $582K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Ducks vs. Flames: O/U 6.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1455105