ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Ducks vs. Oilers
Share on X

Ducks vs. Oilers

Closed March 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$1.1M

Liquidity

$35K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

44%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Ducks vs. Oilers

Full event →

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Current

45% YES (+2.5pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 23%99%
Buy YES@ 23¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Ducks vs. Oilers" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Ducks vs. Oilers." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1476571