Markets/Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:06 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

69%YES

31%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

68% / 70%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

69%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

68% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

59% YES — lowest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

70% → 59%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

76% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

69% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 69%99%

Buy YES@ 69¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 31¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 69%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/836162