Markets/Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

Market Price

19%YES

81%NO

Vol 24h$31K

Liquidity$3K

Bid / Ask6% / 49%

Spread43.00pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 140% — 40pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner

100%

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

22%

Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

19%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+37.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 43.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2014354