Markets/Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

39%YES

61%NO

Volume 24h

$234

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

38% / 40%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-19.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

32% YES — lowest in period

Mar 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 10, 2026

Biggest move: -33.5pp

70% → 36%

Mar 10, 2026

Peak probability

71% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

38% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 39%99%

Buy YES@ 39¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 61¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $234 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1334671