Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche
Closes April 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$558K
Liquidity
$58K
Expert Signal
60%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $558K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1835986
This event has 2 active outcome markets. Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs: 60%, Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Luca Van Assche: Tot: 52%.
Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Apr 3, 2026
Trough probability
19% YES — lowest in period
Apr 3, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
60%
Apr 3, 2026
Biggest move: +40.5pp
19% → 60%
Apr 3, 2026
Peak probability
60% YES — highest in period
Apr 3, 2026
Current
60% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this