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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5
Share on X

Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

49%YES
51%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$1

Bid / Ask

0% / 1%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1925402

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5: 49%, Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~50%.

Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5

49%
Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5
1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-49.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

0%

Apr 9, 2026

Biggest move: -49.5pp

50% → 0%

Apr 9, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 49%99%
Buy YES@ 49¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 51¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this