Markets/Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5

Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5

Data as of Mar 28, 2026, 01:31 AM UTC

Closes March 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

50% / 53%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Current

52% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 51%99%

Buy YES@ 51¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1738628

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