Markets/Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?

Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$0

ClosesMay 9, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The prediction market on who wins the toss between Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians holds significance as it is influenced by the established 100% certainty in the Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians toss outcome, suggesting a potential bias in how tosses are perceived within this particular tournament cluster. The substantial 50 percentage point price movement within zero days indicates a rapid reassessment of probabilities, driven by observed patterns in similar toss markets.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the toss?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2090821