Markets/Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$4.0M

Liquidity$0

ClosesJun 30, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals-0.9pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Polymarket prices the end of the Iran x Israel/US conflict by December 31 at 100%, indicating absolute certainty among traders that hostilities will cease within the year. This suggests markets are pricing in an immediate de-escalation, as evidenced by the falling VIX and Gold's modest rise, despite WTI crude oil showing a slight decline. The collective market intelligence points to an expectation of peace or a significant diplomatic resolution being secured imminently.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+17.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4.0M has been traded. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1571571