Markets/Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Market Price

14%YES

86%NO

FM Estimate

14%

Vol 24h$11

Liquidity$19K

Bid / Ask13% / 15%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Macro fundamentals+1.9pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677315