Markets/Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

Market Price

10%YES

90%NO

FM Estimate

10%

Vol 24h$27K

Liquidity$19K

Bid / Ask6% / 13%

Spread6.50pp

ClosesJun 30, 2026

Macro fundamentals+2.4pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+3.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 6.50pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677314