Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
27%YES
73%NO
Vol 24h$13K
Liquidity$29K
Bid / Ask26% / 28%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026
FM Estimate
25%Market Price
27%↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-3.3pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
+0.0pp
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665414