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Markets/Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?
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Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?

Closes April 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
7%FIS
−1ppvs market 8%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 8% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]
-1.0pp
MacroVIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.8% ↑
-0.6pp
Live compute04:37 AM

Polymarket Price

8%YES
93%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

6% / 8%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

8%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1796475

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Apr 13, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢
Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this