Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
Closes March 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$110K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
55% / 58%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
56%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
47% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: +7.5pp
44% → 51%
Mar 22, 2026
Peak probability
53% YES — highest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Current
53% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $110K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1124253
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