Markets/Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 09:01 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

75%YES

26%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$19

Bid / Ask

51% / 98%

Spread

47.00pp

Expert Signal

75%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

69% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: -12.5pp

69% → 56%

Mar 25, 2026

Current

56% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 75%99%

Buy YES@ 75¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.0%

½ Kelly1.0%

Buy NO@ 26¢

-2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 4.5" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 47.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1710451

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