Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Data as of Apr 8, 2026, 03:58 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

70%FIS

−3ppvs market 73%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 73% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.4% ↓, VIX -20.4% ↓, Gold -0.5% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -1.4% ↓, VIX -20.4% ↓, Gold -0.5% ↓

-5.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:33 AM

Polymarket Price

27%YES

73%NO

Volume 24h

$162K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

26% / 29%

Spread

2.80pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $162K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1709412

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. April 15, 2026: 69%, April 30: 41%, April 10: 27%.