Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Data as of Apr 8, 2026, 02:31 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

69%FIS

−3ppvs market 72%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -3.1pp below current market price; market at 72% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -3.0% ↓, VIX -18.8% ↓, Gold -0.5% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -3.0% ↓, VIX -18.8% ↓, Gold -0.5% ↓

-6.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute02:31 PM

Polymarket Price

72%YES

28%NO

Volume 24h

$36K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

76% / 78%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

72%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.4pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?" at 72% YES / 28% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 72%, NO 28%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1796496

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 30: 72%, April 10: 71%.