Markets/Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$14K

Liquidity$12K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.20pp

ClosesJun 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Jimmy Lai released by June 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Jimmy Lai released by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1371199