Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5

Market Price

28%YES

72%NO

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$37

Bid / Ask5% / 51%

Spread46.00pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 105% — 5pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5

51%

Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5

28%

Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5

27%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-19.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 46.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2041182