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Markets/Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Closes April 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

7% / 13%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1797309

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. June 30: 38%, May 31: 35%, April 30: 30%.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30
38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 3
30%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 1

9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 3
1%

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this