Markets/Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

28%YES

72%NO

Volume 24h

$954

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

28% / 29%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-51.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

80% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

43%

Mar 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

30%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -55.5pp

84% → 28%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

96% YES — highest in period

Mar 11, 2026

Current

28% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 28%99%

Buy YES@ 28¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $954 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/691547