Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Lakers vs. Magic
Closed March 21, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.6M
Liquidity
$451K
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Trough probability
41% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
41%
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 18, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
44%
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: +41.5pp
59% → 100%
Mar 22, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Lakers vs. Magic" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.6M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on March 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Lakers vs. Magic." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1597878
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.