Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$82K

Liquidity$28K

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Peak probability

50%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

46pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$82K

24h total

Liquidity

$28K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

-46.5pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

8 deadline markets. Combined YES = 202% — 102pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H Moneyline

100%

Lakers vs. Rockets

100%

Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $82K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2135582