Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
Closed April 7, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing USD/RUB -0.4% ↓, Oil -10.0% ↓, VIX +6.7% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$965K
Liquidity
$24K
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $965K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1559305
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5: 100%, Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5: 100%, Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5: 100%.
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Apr 8, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 7, 2026
Biggest move: -31.5pp
49% → 17%
Apr 8, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 8, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this