Markets/LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$552K

Liquidity$126K

ClosesApr 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner

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LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

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LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-50.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $552K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2084112