LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$222K

Liquidity$132K

ClosedApr 22, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner: 0%, LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner: 0%, Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~100%.

LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $222K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2050162