Markets/LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$625K

Liquidity$267K

ClosesMay 3, 2026

Why this matters

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Roun

LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

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LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-32.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $625K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2084250