ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2
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LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2

Closed April 14, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
42%FIS
1ppvs market 43%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.7pp below current market price; market at 42% may be overpriced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
MacroUSD/CNY -0.206 ↓, S&P +0.1% ↑, Oil -0.1% ↓
-0.4pp
Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:11 AM

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$774K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $774K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1796795

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+55.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Trough probability

37% YES — lowest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

100%

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: +57.5pp

43% → 100%

Apr 14, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 14, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this