Markets/LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$839K

Liquidity$369K

Bid / Ask56% / 57%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 2, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 233% — 133pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) -

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Ro

100%

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winne

100%

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winne

34%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-20.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $839K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2084204