Markets/LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Market Price

74%YES

26%NO

Vol 24h$1.1M

Liquidity$96K

Bid / Ask75% / 76%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Combined YES = 173% — 73pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LC

LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Chall

100%

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

74%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+22.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2" at 74% YES / 26% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 74%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2." Prediction market snapshot: YES 74%, NO 26%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2014350