Markets/LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

Market Price

26%YES

74%NO

Vol 24h$538K

Liquidity$14K

Bid / Ask29% / 36%

Spread7.00pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 153% — 53pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner

100%

Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

28%

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

26%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+16.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $538K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2014352