Markets/LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Market Price

6%YES

94%NO

Vol 24h$468K

Liquidity$32K

Bid / Ask53% / 54%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 221% — 121pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Wi

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner

100%

LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 1 Winner

57%

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+10.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $468K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2053174