Markets/Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$745K

Liquidity$702K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesMay 4, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-

Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassi

100%

Alexander Blockx vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: T

Alexander Blockx vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Se

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+44.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $745K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2078355