Markets/Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$1.5M

Liquidity$635K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesMay 4, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Combined YES = 200% — 100pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

100%

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5

100%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+64.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.5M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2080207