Markets/Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns

Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$595K

Liquidity$449K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearn: 100%, Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns: Total Set: 0%.

Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns

100%

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Peyton Stearns: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+3.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $595K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2047620