Markets/Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx

Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$968K

Liquidity$56K

ClosesMay 5, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander

Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx

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Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alexander Blockx: Tot

Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alexander Blockx: Total Sets

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-68.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $968K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2100194