Markets/Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong

Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$856K

Liquidity$438K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesApr 29, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong: 100%, Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper de Jong: Total Sets O: 100%.

Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong

100%

Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper de Jong: Total Sets O/U 2.5

100%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+50.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $856K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2034613