Markets/Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud

Market Price

64%YES

36%NO

Vol 24h$1.7M

Liquidity$147K

ClosesMay 5, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Combined YES = 147% — 47pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Casper Ruud: Total Set

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2

84%

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruu

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud

64%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+52.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.7M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 64%. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2097979