Markets/Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)

Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 03:21 PM UTC

Closes March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

35% / 37%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

36% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Current

36% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 64¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1697010

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