Markets/Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 6.5

Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 6.5

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 09:49 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

5% / 30%

Spread

25.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

-9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

10% YES (-4.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 84¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 6.5" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 25.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 6.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786040

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.