ForecastMind
Markets/Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees
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Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

40%YES
61%NO

Volume 24h

$551K

Liquidity

$202K

Bid / Ask

39% / 40%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $551K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1760015

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5: 54%, Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5: 44%, Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5): 43%.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
54%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
44%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
43%

Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees

40%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

40% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

40% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 40%99%
Buy YES@ 40¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 61¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this