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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Monaco vs. Olimpia Milano

Share on X

Monaco vs. Olimpia Milano

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 07:29 PM UTC

Closed March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$439K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

18% / 22%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Monaco vs. Olimpia Milano" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $439K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Monaco vs. Olimpia Milano." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1639612

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