ForecastMind
Markets/Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
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Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES
89%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676802

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this