Markets/OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

63%YES

37%NO

Volume 24h

$869

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

61% / 65%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

57% YES — lowest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -6.5pp

66% → 59%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

66% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 63%99%

Buy YES@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $869 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1298648