Markets/Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$201K

Liquidity$0

ClosesJan 1, 2027

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $201K has been traded. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/972341