Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$39K

Liquidity$40K

ClosedApr 22, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5): 100%, Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5: 100%, Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5): 100%.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

100%

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5

100%

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-32.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $39K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1925036