ForecastMind
Markets/Penguins vs. Blues
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Penguins vs. Blues

Closes April 15, 2026

Polymarket Price

35%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$722K

Liquidity

$443K

Bid / Ask

34% / 35%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Blues" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $722K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Penguins vs. Blues." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640280

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 5.5: 60%, Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 6.5: 50%, Penguins vs. Blues: 35%.

Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
60%
Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 6.5
50%

Penguins vs. Blues

35%
Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 7.5
28%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Current

35% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 35%99%
Buy YES@ 35¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 66¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this