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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5

Share on X

Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5

Data as of Mar 31, 2026, 12:14 AM UTC

Closed March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

52%YES

49%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

71% / 87%

Spread

16.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

Penguins vs. Islanders

Full event →

Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5

52%

Penguins vs. Islanders

43%

Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5

27%

Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5

22%

Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-27.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

80% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -27.0pp

80% → 53%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

53% YES (-27.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 52%99%

Buy YES@ 52¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 49¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 16.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1492902

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.